Your point about officials not wanting to make Trump a martyr or a political prisoner is really important, I think. I believe Merrick Garland and federal prosecutors will charge Trump if (but only if) they come up with smoking-gun evidence of a federal crime. I think the odds of finding that kind of evidence are low.

Still, there is some indication their investigation has taken a turn toward more serious in recent days.

Maybe they think they have found something or are going to find something to pin down Trump's state of mind – something that in his own words shows he knew he lost the election and was taking steps to stay in office anyway.

But your mafia boss analogy is pretty important too. I'd be shocked if Trump ever uttered or wrote words to that effect. I think he's a craftier, more canny criminal than that.

We'll see!