Yes, lgbtq people in red states increasingly feel ourselves in the cross hairs of a war, and young people are the most vulnerable. (Just ask Trevor Project about their youth helplines being overwhelmed these days.)
Efforts to silence discussion of gender identity and sexual orientation in schools is a huge problem for all the reasons you report. So are efforts to remove books from libraries, even books that are unquestionably age-appropriate and wholesome for children, on the sole grounds that they contain LGBTQ characters. Not only are queer kids being deprived of needed resources, but other kids are being taught that those kids are shameful and inappropriate.
Now in a move other states are already discussing copying, the Texas Attorney General has declared that certain forms of gender- affirming therapy meet the state's existing legal definition of child abuse, and the governor has ordered all mandatory reporters (like teachers and mental health professionals) to report the parents of trans kids to the Department of Family Services.
Things look very ominous right now. Lots of us, especially those of us who live in conservative areas, are afraid a serious and long-term regression is taking place in LGBTQ acceptance. We feel it deeply because we live with it every day.
We are afraid our liberal allies and policy leaders in more accepting parts of the United States don't see it, or don't see it clearly enough. We aren't seeing levels of alarm that look appropriate to a very dangerous situation.
Thank you for writing this very clear article to help raise that alarm.