Right, and I mean, I don’t pretend to be a current expert, but I speak and read Russian and I was an intelligence analyst specializing in the Soviet military a long time ago. Georgia, Chechnya, and Crimea are all instructive as to what Russia probably intended in Ukraine. The big question, now their plans went off the rails, is what happens next. Geopolitical realities (which don’t favor Russia) are going to be what they are, and little can change them.

Underreacting to Russian aggression would obviously be a big problem, but catastrophizing isn’t helpful either. EU and US leaders need to stay calm and clear eyed, and indications are that they are doing so.