Interesting theory. I think values play a role too, among women in particular. Since you mentioned the Catholic Church, it's probably important to note that many women say they have left the Church because of its fundamental sexism. No woman can exercise true leadership in the Catholic Church, which bans women from the ranks of clergy. Since the Church is a hierarchical organization in which nearly all practical power is exercised by the clergy, that sticks in the craw of many women, who are accustomed to (and expect) gender equality.

Women are also more likely than men to support LGBTQ equality, an issue the Catholic Church (on whole in the United States) refuses to budge on. That's a deal breaker for a lot of people, especially women.

More and more women say they are leaving the Catholic church because of sexism and homophobia. This effect is markedly pronounced among the youngest American women of Catholic heritage, who are more likely than not to reject a Catholic identity. (Read that again and ponder the significance. Young women raised as Catholic probably will reject a Catholic identity.)

I suspect the effect is more pronounced among young Catholic women than young Evangelical women because young Catholic women are likely to be politically/socially liberal, even progressive.

So they grow up to discover their values are in intractable tension with the values of the Church.

The story is different for young Evangelical women, who grow up much more socio-politically conservative, which is probably a reason to think about things a little differently for different groups of people.