Indeed, Russia's end game has evaporated. There is no good way out for them now. Mathematically, they cannot win a war of attrition. Afghanistan almost literally caused the fall of the Soviet Union. Ukraine shows every indication of being much more expensive than Afghanistan, and the Russian Federation isn't as strong as the Soviet Union was.

I can't believe we're seeing the same classic lack of Russian military preparedness and organization as happened during the Soviet era when field commanders were afraid to report the truth up chain and American intel experts bought the bullshit almost as thoroughly as the Kremlin did.

It's happening all over again.

The Kremlin expected special ops to take Kyiv in 24 to 72 hours and for a puppet regime to be installed shortly thereafter.

But the military assets that were supposed to do that were nowhere as prepared, supplied, or even skilled as senior commanders pretended they were.

Now the whole operation is a clusterfuck. Russian logistics and C3 are falling apart. Their organizational charts were a fantasy. Commanders on the ground are using unencrypted VHS and HF voice links to call in artillery and air support, because their encryption gear isn't working as advertised. The Ukrainian army is listening in, triangulating, pinning down their locations with precise imaging and geo-location, , and blowing them apart.

The Russians are vastly outnumbered, and the Ukrainians, theoretically supplied and armed by the West indefinitely, are not going to run out of arms and armor.

Russia is going to have to pour vast amounts of treasure into the campaign if they have any hope of prevailing in a conventional slug out. And they don't have vast amounts of treasure.

So the question is, what do they do next? Many scenarios present themselves, most of which are good for Europe and Ukraine. But a couple are extremely frightening.

Tactical nukes, with everything that says about escalation, are not out of the question.