I think Putin wants a lot more than saving face. As somebody who spends part of every day immersed in Russian media and Russian pop culture, I wish the West were a little bit more aware of the typical Russian perspective about this matter.
I also wish people were a little bit more aware of the differences between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, because the surface similarities are facile.
Yes, they are both popular and populists. They are both authoritarians without a shred of love for real democracy.
But something the West ignores to its peril, in my opinion, is that Putin is a real-deal patriot. He loves Russia, Russian culture, and the legacy of Russian empire. He could have chosen a different path in life. He could have, like a small handful of his fellow plutocrats who keep him in power, spent his life dedicated solely to enriching himself and his family. He could have amassed billions in currency, property, and business interests by acquiring and controlling great swaths of the crumbling Soviet economy.
Instead, he helped others do that in exchange for political and governing power. He has exercised that power in pursuit of returning Russia to a semblance of its former glory. To boosting Russian culture and even the Eastern Orthodox religion.
Often when he speaks of love of country, he speaks of Rodina, a Russian word which means something like homeland, but carries with it a much more spiritual, reverential subtext. And the Russian people love him for it.
The Ukraine question is at its heart all mixed up in Russian patriotism and Rodina. People in the West concentrate on geopolitics and Realpolitik when thinking about Crimea, eastern Ukraine and the whole mess, which is of course quite a valid way to think about it all.
But when we overlook Russian patriotism and Rodina, we can miss critical context. Putin would very likely win a free and fair election if he ran today. The Russian people love him for his patriotism; they see him as a leader devoted to Rodina.
They see him as a leader who recognizes that the steppes have always been part of the heart of Rodina. The Russian people despise the leaders who let go of territory they consider Russian, and they want it back. The idea that Crimea is not Russian is a concept most Russians (and most people living in Crimea) found startling and unacceptable.
The idea that some of the rest of Ukraine is a separate nation is less a bitter pill to swallow, but it’s still bitter. As for the Ukrainian people, a majority of them want independence, but not an overwhelming majority. "Russian separatists," as they’re usually called in the western press, make up a strong majority of people who live in parts of eastern Ukraine, and a significant minority of people who live elsewhere. They see themselves as patriots who cherish Rodina and pan-Russian culture.
The resolution of the situation is hard to see. I don’t see any way a sort of Northern Ireland situation isn’t going to dominate for decades, with all the violence and even terrorism that implies.
The West, in my opinion, is not helping right now by focusing on Realpolitik and geopolitics while ignoring the cultural issues that are driving the problem.
Putin is not trying to save face. He is leading Russia as he has dreamed of leading Russia since he was a young man watching his nation crumble. He’s doing what he thinks is right. He isn’t Trump, and we ignore that to our peril.
