By every indication, the Kremlin believed this war would be over lightning fast. The fact that they did not have logistics in place for a sustained campaign, and they're still struggling to get things in order, tells most military analysts senior leadership never expected a war of attrition.

Putin didn't expect the war to substantially harm the Russian economy. Now that it has, what happens next is a political question. How much will Putin sacrifice? How much will Russia's leadership class allow him to sacrifice?

He could further impoverish Russia by continuing to produce "beans, bullets, and band-aids" for the army, even if he couldn't build a lot more cruise missiles. The average Russian probably wouldn't starve. Russia produces its own food and energy, after all. But not starving is a low standard.

The Russians have become used to a lifestyle relatively comfortable by developed-nation standards. A sustained war of attrition would wreck that lifestyle.

Will Putin dig his heels in, anyway? If he does, will Russians respond favorably? Or will they push back?

There are signs that Russia and Ukraine are negotiating seriously right now for a meaningful ceasefire. The cost of a war of attrition has to be a theme playing strongly as background for Russian leaders.