I agree with your math, and maybe Trump would too, but this federal case would present a real problem for Trump if he were were to "take a plea."

He would have to appear in open court and stipulate that the charges are true — that he really did try to steal an election he knew he lost.

I don't think he'd have a huge problem with stipulating the facts in the other federal case, but this one? As much as he has a track record of giving up, would that really extend this far?

I don't know. Maybe. Maybe the math is powerful enough. Or maybe an overarching deal might extend to prosecutors dismissing this case so Trump doesn't have to plead guilty in open court. But that opens at least a couple other cans of worms legally.

All in all, I hope you are right!