Great article, thanks!
Your statistical analysis is, I think, the most powerful part of your presentation. If trans women have such a huge advantage, they certainly don’t seem to be taking advantage of it. I think that point can’t be stated too many times.
I’m supposing that what people fear is that that’s going to change. And the fear is tied into this sort of false but common notion notion that gender differences are eroding and medically transitioned trans women are going to become more and more common.
A lot of conservative people are genuinely afraid gender is going to stop mattering.
Hence, their fear isn’t so much based on what’s going on today but what they’re unrealistically afraid is going to happen in the midterm future.
I think part of any argument about trans women in sports has to be centered at least a little around the trans experience, and real facts about the prevalence of trans women in society.
By the way, I would love to see you expand the section on inherent biological advantage. Or do another article about it separately.
The idea that trans women will always have a big physical advantage is a powerful emotional argument. It’s intuitive, so people buy it without really thinking about it.
I don’t think that citing a lack of evidence is going to convince too many people. Just psychologically speaking, negative evidence is never as convincing as positive evidence. Of course, few studies have been done, and that’s part of the problem.
People who oppose trans women participating in women’s sports can and do cite that lack of knowledge as part of their spiel.
I recognize that in reality, it’s not that big a deal given your arguments that come before and after. Just a thought about strengthening your rhetoric.