"But the fact remains that the average guy, who isn’t from a rough neighborhood and who is older than his twenties, may well have no reason to ever be afraid or to be particularly vigilant on a routine basis."

Let's specify that this remains the average for men who are not gay. As a gay man, looking over my shoulder for possible violence is engrained in me. I was gay-bashed, at random, before I turned 30. In the past two years, three gay men in my personal friend circle were physically assaulted in the street, one of them twice in the space of two years.

I don't want to take away from your excellent points, which I agree with completely, just keeping it real.