Braver than I to go public with excellent analysis like this. I am rooting and praying for Ukraine too, but I've been telling friends privately for a couple weeks that I believe Putin is not acting irrationally, for many of the reasons you so well stated here.

I would add that while opposition to his war of aggression is running fairly strong under the surface among Russians, even many Russians who think of him as a dictator and morally oppose his tactics in Ukraine understand he is not acting entirely irrationally or against the long-term interests of Russia.

I'd even go out on a limb and predict that if he can convert Ukraine into a puppet state like Chechnya, the Russian people will award him with grudging respect.